---
title: "Can Unconfident LLM Annotations Be Used for Confident"
description: "The authors propose CONFIDENCE-DRIVEN INFERENCE, which asks an LLM for both a label and a… 63 references, cited by 10 papers here."
authors: ["Kristina Gligorić", "Tijana Zrnic", "Cinoo Lee", "Emmanuel Candès", "Dan Jurafsky"]
year: 2025
venue: "Proceedings of the 2025 Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies (Volume 1: Long Papers)"
source: "https://aclanthology.org/2025.naacl-long.179/"
doi: "10.18653/v1/2025.naacl-long.179"
licence: "CC BY 4.0 (ACL Anthology)"
licence_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
summary_licence: "Elamur Cosmic License"
canonical: "https://research.elamur.ai/free/en/papers/gligoric-2025-can-unconfident-llm-annotations-be/"
---
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# Can Unconfident LLM Annotations Be Used for Confident Conclusions?

**Authors:** [Kristina Gligorić](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/authors/kristina-gligoric/), Tijana Zrnic, [Cinoo Lee](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/authors/cinoo-lee/), [Emmanuel Candès](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/authors/emmanuel-j-candes/) and [Dan Jurafsky](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/authors/dan-jurafsky/) · **Year:** 2025 · **Venue:** [Proceedings of the 2025 Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies (Volume 1: Long Papers)](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/venues/naacl/) ([NAACL 2025](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/venues/naacl/2025/)) · **Publisher:** [Association for Computational Linguistics](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/publishers/association-for-computational-linguistics/) · **Licence:** [CC BY 4.0 (ACL Anthology)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

**Links:** [Publisher's page](https://aclanthology.org/2025.naacl-long.179/) · [PDF](https://aclanthology.org/2025.naacl-long.179.pdf) · [DOI 10.18653/v1/2025.naacl-long.179](https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.naacl-long.179) · [OpenAlex](https://openalex.org/W4411119592)

**Citations:** 9 citations (OpenAlex, 2026-10-14) · [10](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/papers/gligoric-2025-can-unconfident-llm-annotations-be/cited-by/) in our library, of the 149,439 papers whose bibliographies we read

## Summary
Computational social scientists increasingly add LLM annotations to costly human labels. However, LLM errors and biases can quietly distort downstream statistics such as prevalences or regression coefficients. The authors propose CONFIDENCE-DRIVEN INFERENCE, which asks an LLM for both a label and a verbalized confidence score on every text. Items where the model is less confident are more likely to be sent for human annotation. Human and LLM labels are then combined with an estimator built on active inference (Zrnic and Candès, 2024). Power tuning ensures that adding LLM labels never makes the estimate worse than using human labels alone. The output is an unbiased estimate with a valid confidence interval, however good or bad the LLM is. Across five estimation tasks covering politeness, stance, and media bias, the method keeps target coverage and beats baselines in effective sample size. It cuts the human labels needed by over 25%. In contrast, treating LLM outputs as if they were human data can produce badly wrong conclusions. The approach needs only API access, making reliable, cost-efficient annotation practical across disciplines.

## Key points
- Two stages: LLM confidence guides active selection of a small human-annotated subset, and then statistical inference merges both label sources. Sampling probabilities approximate the optimal rule, which is proportional to the expected LLM error.
- The method works for any M-estimator, including means, prevalences, quantiles, and linear or logistic regression coefficients. It is model-free, unlike earlier Bayesian prevalence approaches.
- In every tested setting, higher verbalized confidence corresponded to higher agreement with human labels, which makes the adaptive sampling effective.
- Using only LLM annotations led to wrong conclusions in some cases, such as an odds-ratio estimate in the stance setting, even though LLM–human agreement was moderate.
- Limitations: few LLMs tested, English-only CSS datasets, human labels treated as gold, and no causal experiments. Code and data are at github.com/kristinagligoric/confidence-driven-inference.

*Our summary of the paper, in our own words — not its text. The work belongs to its authors; read it at the links above.*

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## Cite

Cite as: Kristina Gligorić, Tijana Zrnic, Cinoo Lee, Emmanuel Candès and Dan Jurafsky. 2025. Can Unconfident LLM Annotations Be Used for Confident Conclusions?. Proceedings of the 2025 Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies (Volume 1: Long Papers).

The paper itself, not this page. BibTeX from the library's record of the work.

```bibtex
@inproceedings{gligoric2025can,
  title = {{Can Unconfident LLM Annotations Be Used for Confident Conclusions?}},
  author = {Kristina Gligorić, Tijana Zrnic, Cinoo Lee, Emmanuel Candès and Dan Jurafsky},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2025 Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies (Volume 1: Long Papers)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.18653/v1/2025.naacl-long.179},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.naacl-long.179}
}
```

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*Updated 31 October 2026*
