---
title: "Generative Models as a Complex Systems Science: How can we"
description: "The authors present no new data or model. 142 references, cited by 17 papers here. Among them: 4."
authors: ["Ari Holtzman", "Peter West", "Luke Zettlemoyer"]
year: 2023
venue: "arXiv:2308.00189"
source: "https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00189"
doi: "10.48550/arxiv.2308.00189"
arxiv: "2308.00189"
licence: "CC BY 4.0 (arXiv)"
licence_url: "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
summary_licence: "Elamur Cosmic License"
canonical: "https://research.elamur.ai/free/en/papers/holtzman-2023-generative-models-complex-systems-science/"
---
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# Generative Models as a Complex Systems Science: How can we make sense of large language model behavior?

**Authors:** [Ari Holtzman](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/authors/ari-holtzman/), [Peter West](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/authors/peter-west/) and [Luke Zettlemoyer](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/authors/luke-zettlemoyer/) · **Year:** 2023 · **Venue:** arXiv:2308.00189 · **Licence:** [CC BY 4.0 (arXiv)](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

**Links:** [Publisher's page](https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00189) · [PDF](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.00189) · [DOI 10.48550/arxiv.2308.00189](https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2308.00189) · [arXiv 2308.00189](https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00189) · [OpenAlex](https://openalex.org/W4385507660)

**Citations:** 4 citations (OpenAlex, 2026-10-14) · [17](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/papers/holtzman-2023-generative-models-complex-systems-science/cited-by/) in our library, of the 150,927 papers whose bibliographies we read

## Summary
This position paper argues that research on large language models lacks a systematic vocabulary for what these models actually do. Benchmarks keep multiplying, but they do not explain which underlying behaviors let models succeed across tasks. The authors present no new data or model. Instead, they build their case around a thought experiment: a hypothetical "Newformer" that beats Transformers yet is architecturally alien and too costly for anyone to retrain. Such a model would defeat most current interpretability tools. They propose a top-down taxonomy of output-level behaviors, formalized as metamodels that predict limited aspects of a model's output. This taxonomy would then direct bottom-up mechanistic work. They frame generative models as complex systems whose emergent behaviors are usually discovered rather than engineered. They also note that, unlike natural systems, these models can be simulated and support repeatable experiments, but only if they are open-source. The main message is to establish *what* models do before asking how and why. This would make analysis more robust to future architecture changes.

## Key points
- **Newformer thought experiment:** an attention-free, partly non-differentiable model that is unreplicable at scale shows how fragile Transformer-specific interpretation methods are. The authors compare this to earlier gating-based RNN/LSTM analyses (e.g., ELMo era), which did not carry over to Transformers such as BERT.
- **Behavior guiding mechanisms:** Al-Rfou et al. (2019) observed copying behavior, which prompted researchers first to identify copying heads and later to find the mechanism tied to in-context learning known as induction heads, as reported by Elhage et al. (2021) and Olsson et al. (2022).
- **Bottom-up analysis can mislead:** embedding anisotropy was widely treated as a flaw. Later work suggests it may not limit expressivity and may even help LMs.
- **Working definition of behavior:** building on Fong and Vedaldi (2017), a behavior is a partial explanation, meaning a metamodel that predicts certain aspects of a black-box model's output.
- **Access and openness:** training a GPT-3-level model costs about half a million dollars in compute, so most labs cannot do it. Proprietary APIs such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 drift over time and are silently patched, which introduces observer effects. Open-source models lag roughly 1–2 years behind and are essential for replicable science.

*Our summary of the paper, in our own words — not its text. The work belongs to its authors; read it at the links above.*

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- [University of Washington](https://md.research.elamur.ai/free/en/universities/university-of-washington/) — University, Seattle, United States · 422 works · 213,644 citations

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## Cite

Cite as: Ari Holtzman, Peter West and Luke Zettlemoyer. 2023. Generative Models as a Complex Systems Science: How can we make sense of large language model behavior?. arXiv:2308.00189.

The paper itself, not this page. BibTeX from the library's record of the work.

```bibtex
@misc{holtzman2023generative,
  title = {{Generative Models as a Complex Systems Science: How can we make sense of large language model behavior?}},
  author = {Ari Holtzman, Peter West and Luke Zettlemoyer},
  year = {2023},
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2308.00189},
  eprint = {2308.00189},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2308.00189}
}
```

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## References

142 references, 57 of them with a card of ours. ↗ leads to the work, «find» searches for one we have no id for yet.

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*Updated 3 November 2026*
